Sensex View

The Sensex is testing the band of support at 19,800 to 20,000. Failure would signal a correction to 18000. Sharp divergence warns of strong medium-term selling pressure.

Sensex View

Sensex corrected about 1000 points from the top.It fell by about 600 points from the sell signal which was generated last week.20,000 is a very important support level on closing basis,today(18th Oct'10) though it went below that to take support at 19800 levels it managed to close above 20k.The Twiggs Money Flow Index which measures the money flow into and out of the market has gone to negative zone as of friday 15th oct,which is bearish. The TMF Index remaining below zero line and sensex closing below 20k we could see a large correction upto 19k, so be cautious.

Sensex View

The Sensex broke downward from its fast-rising trend channel, indicating a correction. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) respect of the zero line would confirm strong buying pressure. A brief retracement that respects support at 19800 would also indicate trend strength.

Sensex View

The Sensex broke resistance at 20000. Further advances without a reasonable correction would indicate a self-reinforcing trend: rapid gains but ending in a blow-off and equally rapid reversal.

Sensex View

The Sensex broke through 18500, confirming the primary advance to 20000. 63-day Twiggs Momentum Oscillator holding above zero strengthens the signal. Reversal below 18000 looks unlikely.

Sensex View

The Sensex is retracing to test support at 18000 Monday. Recovery above 18500 would confirm the primary advance to 20000.A close below 18000 could take it to 17500. Reversal below 17400 is unlikely, but would signal a decline to primary support at 16000.

Sensex View

The Sensex is testing its new support level at 18000. Respect would confirm the breakout and offer a target of 20000. Declining Twiggs Money Flow (13-week), however, warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect further tests of the new support level. Reversal below 17400 is unlikely, but if breaks would test primary support at 16000.

BSE Sensex

The Sensex broke through resistance at 18000, signaling a primary advance to 20000. Which was mentioned in the previous posts as well. A completed higher trough on Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) would confirm strong buying pressure.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow recovered from last week's scare and is advancing towards the upper border of the broadening wedge formation. Breakout would indicate reversal of the primary down-trend, before it really began. Rising Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) indicates short-term buying pressure. Reversal below the lower border, however, remains as likely and would offer a target of 9000.

Dow Generates Fresh sell signals

Dow Jones Industrial average tumbles 261 points as financials push the broader market lower.Dow generated a new signal on friday,As you can see from the attached charts .S&P 500 and Nasdaq also have generated fresh sell signals.Is it time to be cautious , i would assume yes, remain extremely cautious as Indian markets have been outperforming the world markets last couple of weeks.We are showing similiar patterns seen in 2007 october,where world markets were sliding after the first news of sub prime mortgage news was out and Indian markets were rising.Then we all saw what happend in January 2008.Caution is the buzz word.

Sensex View

The Sensex remains more bullish than most other markets and narrow consolidation below resistance at 18000 would indicate an upward breakout with a target of 20000. A higher trough on Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) would signal buying pressure; reversal below zero appears unlikely but would warn of selling pressure.

Sensex View

The Sensex respected resistance at 18000 at the start of the new week, but Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) trough above zero indicates buying pressure. Narrow consolidation below 18000 would warn of a breakout, which would offer a target of 20000.

Sensex View

The Sensex broke its descending trendline, signaling an advance to 18000. Rising Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) indicates buying pressure. In the long term, reversal below 15800 would signal a primary down-trend, while breakout above 18000 would offer a target of 20000.

Sensex View

The Sensex displays bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (21-day), signaling a rally to test 17000. In the long term, reversal below 15800 would signal a primary down-trend; recovery above 18000, however, would offer a target of 20000.

Dow Jones Industrials shows topping pattern

U.S. stocks got hammered Tuesday, after Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece to junk status and also lowered the boom on Portugal's credit rating.It closed below 11k mark to close at 11,992 down by 213 points.Dow has given a sell signal on big volumes.For the sell signal to go it should close above 11060 in todays trade.Dow futures is indicating a positive start for Wednesday 28th April 2010.S&P 500 futures rose 4.3 points to 1,185.30 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 6.75 points to 2,015.50. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 31 points. Southern Europe again was the focus of investors, with Spain's IBEX 35 down over 2% in midday trade.Risk aversion appears to be increasing, with gold and the dollar picking up simultaneously again and equity markets nose-diving.

Opening Bell

US markets closed 70 points higher attempting to regain 11,000 yet again.Asian markets are trading up led by metals.In India markets opened flat to positive but later slided down because of the news of sebi ban on Ulips.Presently nifty spot is trading at 5350.A close below 5345 is very negative, the present uptrend could come to a halt.So remain extremely cautious on long positions.Avoid agressive longs.Looks like market is set to top anytime or already a top is bieng made at 5400.Traders can go short in nifty future with strict stop loss of 5380 on spot.

Time for Caution

US markets ended lower below 10900 dragged down by weaker than expected economic data.Asian markets are too trading lower.Nifty opened flat to negative and currently trading at 5355 down by 18 points from yesterdays closing.Markets are crucially poised at the moment,looks like a top is already made or will be made anytime between now and April 14th.Watch the level of 5345,any close below that is negative .Two consecative closes below that nifty can see a significant correction.So extreme caution is advised from here on long positions.Investors can stay in cash by liquidating positions,traders who can short can go short with stop loss at 5385 spot.

Opening Bell

Dow Jones Industrial average closed 46 points up.Most of the asian markets are flat,but Japan stocks head lower amid profit booking.Nifty opened on a positive note,but presently trading flat at 5369.For bullish momentum to continue nifty has to trade above 5380, a closing above this level will further strengthen the momentum.There seems to be a consolidation happening at present levels.May be sideways movement for couple of days then the next move should start.For Intraday if Nifty spot starts trading below 5350 then weakness could persist.

Opening Bell

US markets closed on a positive note on Friday.Many Asian markets are closed today,in Japan stocks advanced but are off the highs.Nifty opened higher on global support presently trading at 5319.There is a strong resistence at 5330 levels,today infact it made a high of 5330 and has retraced.If nifty sustains above 5330 levels and closes above that then nifty is headed higher.On the other side if it is unable to cross 5330 then traders have to be carefull with long positions.

Opening Bell

Dow Jones Industrial average fell 50 points to close at 10,856.Asia opens on positive note backed by Bank of Japans quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment released showed significantly less pessimism amoung the nations biggest firms,even as obstacles to recovery remained.Nifty opened with gap up following the asian peers,presently trading at 5276.The range for nifty remains same ,bullish above 5330 and bearish below 5242.Nifty for last 3 days has been moving within tht range.Either side break out will give direction to the trend.The chances of lower end bieng broken are high.Since we have a time cycle date coming on April 7th,we are some where close to a top or top is already made.For intraday the range is very small , break of 5270 will indicate weakness,and strength above 5290.

Opening Bell

US stocks traded flat for most of tuesdays session to finish fractionally higher.Asian markets are mostly lower.Nifty had a positive opening.Nifty trading below 5272 is bad.Traders can sell nifty future if spot trades below 5272 with a strict stop loss at 5300.A close below 5242 the present uptrend will end.So remain extremely cautious on long positions.Markets should top any time between now and April 7th the next time cycle date.

Opening Bell

On Monday US markets closed on positive note yet again.Sentiment seems to have picked up on positive step towards Greece managing its debt problems.Asian markets too are trading higher led by Japan.In India too markets yesterday made a new 2 year high.But one thing worrying is markets are making new highs on bad breadth and low volumes which is not a good sign for bulls.The main trend continues to be bullish,a close above 5330 will further boost the strength.If during intra nifty starts trading above 5325 then long positions can be built with stop loss at 5300.Till then there will be stock specific action.But investors and traders need to be very carefull from here on as we are approaching a time cycle date on April 7th.So any time between now and April 7th the markets could top.So maintain strict stop losses on all positions.

Opening Bell

US markets finished unchanged giving of early gains on mixed economic data on jobless claims.The prospective Greek bail out did not help in generating buying interest.Asian Markets are trading flat with a positive bias.Nifty opened higher with the new April series starting from today.After yesterdays surprise bounce from lower levels nifty currently is trading at 5282.A close above 5260 will further strengthen the bullishness.Intraday traders can also have 5260 as stop loss for all long positions.The momentum is clearly in favour of bulls.The last 3 days war between bulls and bears won by bulls.Stock specific action to continue.

Opening Bell

Wall street finished lower on wednesday.Tuesday it closed higher by 100 points.Europe problems dont seem to end with Portugal bieng the new problem centre.Dollar surged ahead pushing commodity and energy stocks lower.This morning asian markets are trading lower on strong dollar.Nifty opened on a slightly weaker note and presently trading at 5213.Today is the expiry of March series, so far markets have been calm ,second half there could be volatality.If Nifty closes below 5214 then it is very negative for the markets.Nifty could slide down further.Last 3 trading sessions bulls have been trying with all out effort to close above that.But bulls will have a upper hand only above 5265 till then it is better to be carefull with longs.

Opening Bell

US markets ended on a positive note led by healthcare and pharma stocks on the back of approval of healthcare reform bill.Europe closed weak on greece debt concerns.Back in asia markets are trading mixed with positive bias.Nifty too opened with a gap up and presently is trading at 5235.yeseterday nifty spot closed below 5214 level at 5205 which is the first indication of sell signal.Since we opened gap up today the sell signal has been nullified.But if today also we close below 5214 then the sell will be reiterated.So watch out for the closing levels today.Bulls need a close above 5270.Inbetween the trend is neutral.Since we are approaching expiry this week markets could get volatile with either side movements.Stock specific action will continue with telecom space showing some strength and realty looking weak.

Opening Bell

On Friday RBI made a unexpected move by hiking the repo and reverse repo by 25 bps.The markets took it on a negative note and nifty opened gap down below 5200.Later it recovered and presently is trading at 5230.US markets closed moderately lower on friday on credit concerns in European nations.Most markets in asia are trading negatively.Nifty spot presently is in a crucial juncture.It looks like a top is either formed or going to form in the coming days.For today a close below 5214 is a first indication for longs to be carefull.For bulls they need a close above 5270 for momentum to continue.Intraday nifty spot has to trade above 5233 then the negative impact will be reduced for the day.Todays closing is very crucial for the coming trend.If we close between 5214 and 5270 then the trend is neutral.Either side break out will determine the trend for the coming days.

Opening Bell

Dow surged to fresh 52 week high's in a lacklustre trading session overnight.Stock indices in asia are on a mixed note.Nifty opened flat to positive presently trading at 5253.Nifty has to trade above 5260 for momentum to gain strength.Looks like steadily nifty is headed for 5300.There is lot of action outside nifty where trader interest is developing.Stock specific action expected.

Opening Bell

US markets gained in yesterdays trade hitting a new 52 week high.Asian markets are trading mixed.Nifty opened flat to positive and presently trading at 5238.From hereon the action will be stock specific rather than in nifty.Nifty has a strong resistence near 5300 the previous top made in January 2010.For momentum to gather nifty has to trade above 5260 for it to take towards 5300.The trend is clearly bullish,we might get ocassional dips intraday but the momentum is upward.For intraday traders can have a stop loss of 5225 in nifty.Stock specific action to continue.

Opening Bell

Atlast the break out happens on the upper side,having broken the 5147 level decisively nifty managed to cross the 5200 mark.The trend is now clearly on the upper side.A close above 5209 will add to the strength.Major averages in US finished firmly in the positive territory in yesterdays trade after fed decided to keep the interest rates unchanged and renewed its pledge to keep it low for an extended period.Most asian markets are trading with a positive bias.Intraday traders can have a stop loss of 5220 for intra longs in nifty.Stock specific action will keep happening as the main trend is bullish and i will be updating it on my tweets.

Opening Bell

Major indices in US remain unchanged as the saga of listless trading continues.Nifty too opened flat to positive.Its been almost 8-9 trading sessions where nifty is absolutely lifeless.There is no activity on either side.The key levels remain same 5100 on lower side which was tested yesterday having made a low of 5101.On higher side its 5147 either side break out and close above or below levels mentioned will give the next course of direction.Till then traders have to go through the pain of watching listless activity.

Opening Bell

Wall Street finished moderately higher on friday led by mixed set of economic data.Asian markets are trading lower today .Nifty too opened lower ,presently its trading at 5117.Having not been able to close above 5147 has been bit negative.Entire last week markets have been very dull and listless.Looks like market is waiting for a trigger to take a direction.For today if nifty spot closes below 5100 then markets could fall,shorters can have a stop loss of 5135 for intraday and positional stop loss of close above 5147.Those who are long can have a stop loss of 5100 on spot nifty for all long positions.Bulls need a close above 5147.Markets cannot remain sideways for long at some point of time it will take a direction.Watch out the levels.

Opening Bell

US markets managed to close in the green after trading in the restricted range for most of the day.Asian markets are trading in a tight range.Nifty opened positive currently trading at 5152.Yesterday though towards end it managed to close at 5147 the last half an hour average brought it down to 5133.A close above 5147 is bullish.For today nifty spot trading above 5158 should take it to 5200 levels either today or next week.The trend is up,intra traders can have a stop loss of 5130 for longs.Today IIP data will be released,it should be good.That could be the trigger for the markets.

Opening Bell

US markets closed marginally higher with lacklustre activity.Asian markets too are trading mixed.Nifty opened flat presently trading at 5106.Watch for the level of 5092.Any close below that level then the uptrend could end.Have a stop loss of 5122 for all short positions.There has to be 2 consecative closes below that level for confirmed downtrend.Tommorrow IIP data will be released, as of now there isnt much euphoria,but numbers are expected to be good.Monday advance tax figures will give a rough idea about the upcoming results.So activity should pick up from tommorrow with the events to follow.

Opening Bell

US markets closed with modest gains on thin volumes on lack of any economic data.Most asian markets are trading flat.Nifty too opened flat near yesterdays close.Presently nifty spot is trading at 5116.If it starts trading above 5121 then it might try to test the 5147 levels which it has to cross and close above for the upward momentum to continue.On the lower side watch out for 5092 levels, if it starts trading below this level reduce long positions.If nifty spot closes below 5092 today then the present uptrend is threatened.So watch out for this important level today.

Opening Bell

US markets finished flat amidst listless and lacklustre trading due to lack of any major economic data.Domestic markets are also listless as there are no international cues.Asia is trading on a mixed note.Nifty spot currently is trading at 5110.If it starts trading below 5108 then it can be short sold with a stop loss of 5132.If nifty closes below 5068 then the present uptrend seems to have temporarily halted.

Opening Bell

US markets ended higher on friday led by better than expected employment data.Nifty opened with a gap up as the entire asia was trading higher.The bias is still positive.But it is more of cautious optimisim from here on as we have risen about 6% since budget day and it has been one way up.For today watch the level of 5128 on spot currently nifty is at 5136.If it starts trading below 5128 then it is advisable to lighten positions for intraday.For positional as far as it closes above 5093 the trend is up.On higher side watch the level of 5148 above which the bullishness will be further strengthned.

Opening Bell

US markets closed positive on mixed economic data on pending home sales and retail sales ahead of the Fridays big employment reading.Asian markets are up smartly.Nifty too opened with a gap up presently trading at 5110.The bias is positive ,as far as nifty closes above 5093 the trend will continue to remain up.For today if nifty spot starts trading above 5119 nifty future can be bought with a stop loss of 5092.Target for this uptrend is around 5170.Realty sector looks good.

Opening Bell

US markets had a flat closing as cautious statements by Fed offset positive cues from the upbeat economic data on employment and services.Asian markets to trading flat to positive.Nifty opened flat to negative,as we have risen for three consecative days nifty might consolidate before moving up again.Nifty has to trade above 5088 for uptrend to continue, a close above 5092 will indicate further strength.Presently nifty trading at 5071.Spot Nifty trading below 5072 will indicate weakness for the day.The main trend continues to be bullish.

Overnight US markets closed flat there was optimisim that Greek bail out is coming soon.Asian markets too are trading flat to positive.Nifty opened with a positive bias, currently trading at 5053,if it trades above 5055 then nifty will show strength.Have a stop loss of 5029 for all long positions.As far as it remains above 5029 and also if it manages to close above that the uptrend will continue.

Opening Bell

Nifty opened with a gap up,US markets went up in yesterdays trade as traders and investors welcomed an uptick in consumer spending,strong manufacturing growth and many mergers and acquisition news.Asian markets are trading mixed.Nifty presently is trading at 4987 up by 65 points.If it starts trading above 4996 one can buy nifty future with stop loss at 4965.On the other side if it starts trading below 4970 then one can short nifty with stop loss at 4999 on spot.

End of the day Commentary

The Finance minister presented the union budget . It was a conservative and well choked out budget.Not only has he cut the fiscal deficit to 5.5% in the coming year,but has promised to cut it to 4.8% in FY12 and 4.1% in FY13.Which is very positive sign.Markets reacted well and once nifty started trading above 4885 it zoomed past the strong resistence of 4920-4930 to make a high of 4992.Nifty future even crossed 5000 levels.Later part of the day there was selling pressure and towards the end it closed below the all important 4930 level.Now that all the events are over its back to normalcy frm next week onwards.Monday is a holiday due to Holi, we have 2 sessions of international markets when we open on tuesday the 2nd March 2010.We have seen the effect of the time cycle date of Feb 26th with a 400 point rise in sensex and then a fall of 250 points frm the highs.March 1st which is a holiday is also another time cycle date.We should see the effect of that on Tuesday March 2nd.

Opening Bell-Budget Blues

Today is the most watched day by the investor fraternity, which is the presentation of the Union Budget by the finance minister.As usual there are lots of expectations,but the market participants are more keen on the outcome after the presentation.The budget will be presented at 11 am IST.Nifty spot presently is trading at 4877.Till 11 am market is expected to be flat .If it starts trading above 4885 then nifty could show strength and might try to attempt the resistence level of 4920-4930.Traders should have a strict stop loss of 4857.Any close below 4857 will be extremly negative.I would assume that since markets are very light chances of markets going up are more.Then all depends on what kind of budget will be presented and what the market expectations will be.Till then keep the fingers crossed.

Gold & Silver Update

Exit Gold shorts if it starts trading above 1109$, or have a trailing stop loss at 1110$.Currently trading at 1108$.Exit Silver shorts at 16.16$ which is the current market price.

Gold Update

Gold continues to look weak.Hold shorts with stop loss 1121$.Supports are 1080 and 1060$ levels.

Opening Bell

Yet again flat opening for nifty at 4859.Spot nifty trading below 4860 is weak,compulsive traders can go short with stop loss at 4881.A close below 4857 is negative and a close above 4912 is positive.Volumes are very low so there could be sharp spikes on either side,best is to stay away and wait for the event to unfold.Jessi Livermore the legendary trader of yester years once said " there are days i will be long ,there are days i will be short,then there are days i go fishing".These are the times one can go for fishing.

Commodities Update

Gold looks weak below 1098$, presently trading at 1100$ .Sell Gold with stop loss at 1121$.Sell Silver cmp 15.66 stop loss 16.50.Sell crude below 78$ stop loss 80.50$ cmp 78.85$

Opening Bell

Overnight cues from US markets and asian markets have been down.Nifty is trading flat at 4873.If it starts trading above 4875 one can buy with stop loss at 4834.But the position should be pure intraday as there are lot of events in the next couple of days.Infact the risk reward ratio is not good, so the best advise is to stay away till a clear trend emerges.A close above 4912 is positive.Dow Jones and S&P 500 have already generated fresh sell signals, so extreme caution is advised on long positions.There is a time cycle date on 26th Feb 2010, which coincides with another time cycle date of March 1st 2010.Two nearby time cycle dates which are preceded by events like union budget could turn out to be major turning points.The dates hold good for the entire world markets so the event could be anything.Remain extremely cautious.Stay light on positions.

End of the Day Commentary

It was a flattish kind of market with very low activity because of upcoming events of railway budget,economic survey,Febraury expiry and union budget.Market once it crossed the 4865 levels did show some strength to go to 4883 but could not sustain at higher levels.But the positive factor bieng the closing of 4870 which is above 4857.Next few days the range could be 4930 on higher side and 4830 on lower side,either side break out will give a direction for the markets.Till then it will be range bound.Caution is advised.