End of the day Commentary

The Finance minister presented the union budget . It was a conservative and well choked out budget.Not only has he cut the fiscal deficit to 5.5% in the coming year,but has promised to cut it to 4.8% in FY12 and 4.1% in FY13.Which is very positive sign.Markets reacted well and once nifty started trading above 4885 it zoomed past the strong resistence of 4920-4930 to make a high of 4992.Nifty future even crossed 5000 levels.Later part of the day there was selling pressure and towards the end it closed below the all important 4930 level.Now that all the events are over its back to normalcy frm next week onwards.Monday is a holiday due to Holi, we have 2 sessions of international markets when we open on tuesday the 2nd March 2010.We have seen the effect of the time cycle date of Feb 26th with a 400 point rise in sensex and then a fall of 250 points frm the highs.March 1st which is a holiday is also another time cycle date.We should see the effect of that on Tuesday March 2nd.

Opening Bell-Budget Blues

Today is the most watched day by the investor fraternity, which is the presentation of the Union Budget by the finance minister.As usual there are lots of expectations,but the market participants are more keen on the outcome after the presentation.The budget will be presented at 11 am IST.Nifty spot presently is trading at 4877.Till 11 am market is expected to be flat .If it starts trading above 4885 then nifty could show strength and might try to attempt the resistence level of 4920-4930.Traders should have a strict stop loss of 4857.Any close below 4857 will be extremly negative.I would assume that since markets are very light chances of markets going up are more.Then all depends on what kind of budget will be presented and what the market expectations will be.Till then keep the fingers crossed.

Gold & Silver Update

Exit Gold shorts if it starts trading above 1109$, or have a trailing stop loss at 1110$.Currently trading at 1108$.Exit Silver shorts at 16.16$ which is the current market price.

Gold Update

Gold continues to look weak.Hold shorts with stop loss 1121$.Supports are 1080 and 1060$ levels.

Opening Bell

Yet again flat opening for nifty at 4859.Spot nifty trading below 4860 is weak,compulsive traders can go short with stop loss at 4881.A close below 4857 is negative and a close above 4912 is positive.Volumes are very low so there could be sharp spikes on either side,best is to stay away and wait for the event to unfold.Jessi Livermore the legendary trader of yester years once said " there are days i will be long ,there are days i will be short,then there are days i go fishing".These are the times one can go for fishing.

Commodities Update

Gold looks weak below 1098$, presently trading at 1100$ .Sell Gold with stop loss at 1121$.Sell Silver cmp 15.66 stop loss 16.50.Sell crude below 78$ stop loss 80.50$ cmp 78.85$

Opening Bell

Overnight cues from US markets and asian markets have been down.Nifty is trading flat at 4873.If it starts trading above 4875 one can buy with stop loss at 4834.But the position should be pure intraday as there are lot of events in the next couple of days.Infact the risk reward ratio is not good, so the best advise is to stay away till a clear trend emerges.A close above 4912 is positive.Dow Jones and S&P 500 have already generated fresh sell signals, so extreme caution is advised on long positions.There is a time cycle date on 26th Feb 2010, which coincides with another time cycle date of March 1st 2010.Two nearby time cycle dates which are preceded by events like union budget could turn out to be major turning points.The dates hold good for the entire world markets so the event could be anything.Remain extremely cautious.Stay light on positions.

End of the Day Commentary

It was a flattish kind of market with very low activity because of upcoming events of railway budget,economic survey,Febraury expiry and union budget.Market once it crossed the 4865 levels did show some strength to go to 4883 but could not sustain at higher levels.But the positive factor bieng the closing of 4870 which is above 4857.Next few days the range could be 4930 on higher side and 4830 on lower side,either side break out will give a direction for the markets.Till then it will be range bound.Caution is advised.

Opening Bell

A gap up yesterday also did not prevent nifty from closing below 4857.With lots of events this week it could be a volatile week.For todays trading to be bullish it should trade above 4865, then nifty could show some strength, stop loss for any longs should be at 4833.A close below 4857 will reiterate the negative bias.

Opening Bell

Nifty opens gap up with the help of strong asian markets, and better than expected US markets on Friday.Nifty spot is trading at 4905.Again we are back to the resistence area of 4920-4930 band.This week could be very volatile week as there are many events like railway budget,union budget and February series expiry.On upper side a close above 4930 would be bullish with resistence at 4950.Sustaining above 4950 then 5050 is possible.On lower side watch out for 4857,below which we closed on friday.Any close or nifty trading below 4857 is negative.

Commodities Update

Gold closed at 1121.60$, a rise of more than 4% since the last buy signal of Feb 10th 2010.Any rise above 1127 will boost further rise in gold.Have a stop loss of 1097 for all long positions.
Crude gave a good rise to 80$ since the buy signal at 74$.Have a stop loss of 77.50$ for all long positions.82$ level is a strong resistence.