How to trade effectively with trading tool

For Long : If the price is above the bullish above level and above the daily pivot then buy the stock.
For Short : If the price is below the bearish below level and below the daily pivot then sell the stock.

Mkts end strong ahead of expiry day

The markets surged higher on the back of short covering in the second half of the trade, after witnessing volatility throughout the session ahead of F&O expiry day. More or the less it was a positive day for the markets, barring few blips during the day. The Sensex crossed the 9700 level during the day while the Nifty closed below the 3000 mark.

The 30-share BSE Sensex has touched an intraday high of 9,706.47, before closing the day at 9,667.90, up 2.08% or 196.86 points. The 50-share NSE Nifty went up 1.55% or 45.65 points, to settle at 2,984.35, after hitting a high of 2996.50.

We continue to be in uptrend as far as Nifty closes above 2950.But 3000 is a strong resistence if we manage to hold above that level then the uptrend will gather momentum.Use all dips to buy.Tommorrow bieng March series F&O expiry markets could remain extremely volatile.Tommorrow also happens to be a time cycle date, if we have already topped at 3016 then the sideways consolidation would continue for next few days.

At the time of closing of Indian equities, European markets were trading lower. The FTSE was trading at 3,889, down 22 points. The CAC was trading at 2,867, down 7.5 points and the DAX was down 16 points, to 4,172.

However, the US futures were trading marginally higher. The Dow Jones Futures were up 35 points, to 7,655 and the Nasdaq Futures were up 5.75 points, to 1242

Markets end flat after a volatile session

The benchmark indices ended marginally weak, after giving up all the gains in the last half an hour of the trade. The markets were volatile ahead of the F&O expiry. Both the indices had started on a strong note following positive Asian markets and rally in US markets. However, the markets tumbled in the second half of the trade due to profit booking mild profit booking in European markets and US futures.

The 30-share Sensex shed 228 points from an intraday high of 9,699, before closing the day at 9,471.04, up 0.5% or 47.02 points. However, the 50-share NSE Nifty shut 2938.70, down just 1.2 points or 0.04%. It lost 78.7 points from day's high of 3017.40.

Nifty corrected sharply in the second half of the day.Since it had run up almost 200 points from fridays close the correction was overdue.Since this is also a bear market rally, they always turn out to be very sharp rallies and sharp corrections.Till we close above 2825 we continue to be in a uptrend.We have a time cycle date of March 26th which coincides with the March F&O expiry, which could turn out to be a top.I would assume we would consolidate before moving up again.This uptrend is not over yet.

THE LARGE UPMOVE HAS COME, NIFTY 2950 TARGET REACHED !!!!

It was a spectacular session for the benchmark indices on the back of huge buying in oil & gas, metal and banking stocks. Strong global cues helped the Nifty to close the day above 2900 mark, important psychological level while the Sensex shut shop above 9400 level. Today's surge in the markets was on the back of strong volumes.

There was news that the White House is expected to announce bank bailout plan today, which was the reason that helped all global markets to post good gains. Long only funds were buyers across the Asia today. Incremental flows were positive on good volumes while there was a lack of selling pressure at FII desk.

The 30-share BSE Sensex touched an intraday high of 9,454.69, before closing the day at 9,424.02, up 5.1% or 457.34 points. The 50-share NSE Nifty surged 4.73% or 132.85 points, to settle at 2,939.90, after hitting a high of 2949.75. All sectoral indices finished in the green.

The targets mentioned in the previous blog of 2950-2970 has been reached,Nifty made a high of exactly 2950 today.The large upmove i was mentioning has begun.If nifty sustains above 2970 then its headed for 3050 plus.I remain extremely positive on the markets.Enjoy this rally.

Consolidation continues with sideways movement

Markets had a flat trading day yet again.Nifty closed at 2807 ,almost the same as thursdays close.Sensex closed at 8966 losing 35 points.We should see this consolidation continue next week.This consolidation period is a part of the large next coming upmove.Once this consolidation is complete markets should start moving up again.Next week we have a time cycle date on March 26th which also coincides with the March F&O expiry.I would assume we should move up from this time cycle date +/- 1-2 days.Nifty is bullish above 2836 and bearish below 2750.Traders can wait for the breakout and then take positions.If it breaks on upside that is above 2836 then nifty is headed for 2950-2970.Watch out for the levels.

Markets end flat

The Nifty and Sensex closed marginally higher after witnessing volatality throughout the day.However sell off was seen in capital goods and select auto and metal stocks.Nifty gained 12 points to close at 2807 having swung 50 points in intraday.
Nifty with all the volatality still managed to close above 2780 which indicates that the uptrend is still intact ,once the consolidation gets over markets could zoom up ,the first target bieng 2950,then above that 3100 levels also possible.We will take the agressive position as and when days go by.But we remain cautiously positive at this moment.Once we get positive indications like crossover of 2830-2835 levels in nifty aggressive positions might be taken.There is good activity in many midcaps which we are concentrating.Traders can have a good time next week.For details on individual counters email or call .

Markets end higher amid volatality

Nifty managed to cross the 2800 resistence and managed to stay above that for most of the day but ended lower to close at 2794.Sensex also managed to trade above 9000 for most part of the day,but closed at 8976.Shares of reality,oil and gas,capital goods and metals supported the markets in the upmove.But last 1 hour selling pulled the indices down on the back of weak european markets.Our markets are now mainly driven by movements in international markets.European markets were trading of days high after the job less data.US futures were also trading weak with dow futures down by 58 points.
Nifty 2830 is a very crucial level for bulls.If we sustain above that we are headed for 2950 levels.Till we close above 2780 we continue to be in uptrend,these levels are for positional traders.Tonight US markets could correct which might be reflected tommorrow in our markets too.But use dips to buy.We booked profits in Reliance inds at 1350 levels,target given in earlier blog was 1365,it made a high of 1361.We have built positions in midcaps.Next few days will give good trading opportunity for traders.

Nifty touches exactly 2805 and retraces

Nifty and Sensex snapped the 3 day winning streak.The markets ended lower after witnessing volatality the entire day.Nifty reached exactly 2805 levels in the morning trades which was my second target for the buy i intiated at 2680 levels on Friday.We booked profits near these levels and also bought puts for intraday trading which was squared up around 2750 levels.Nifty went on to make a low of 2739.As far as Nifty closes above 2726 the uptrend should continue.Nifty closed at 2757 levels down by about 20 points.We Could consolidate around these levels,before moving up again.
At the time of closing of Indian Equities European markets were trading slightly lower.London down by 17 points,France 25 points and Germany 18 points.Dow Futures was mildly positive up by 22 points.

Uptrend Continues with Nifty Closing above 2750

Markets continued the upside momentum as expected.My first target of 2755 in nifty has been reached.Next target is 2805 which should be reached tommorrow.If we sustain above 2800 then we are headed further up.Nifty today closed at 2777 up by 58 points from fridays closing.Reliance Industries,ICICI,SBI,DLF,HUL were some of the index scrips which went up.Reliance target is 1350-1365,currently at 1327.Bank Index was also amoung the top gainers led by SBI.

Global cues were At the time of closing of Indian equities, European markets were trading higher. FTSE was trading at 3,822, up 69 points. CAC was up 71 points, to 2,777 and DAX gained 90 points at 4,044.

US futures also moved higher. The Dow Jones Futures were up 79 points, to 7,258 and the Nasdaq Futures were trading at 1,179.75, up 11.75 points.

Diversification is the key for Successfull Investing

As the global financial crisis cuts a notch deeper and many economies officially go into recession, stock markets have turned quite choppy. Liquidity is significantly tight at this point, interest rates are on a generic basis cooling off. Business confidence is glum, job-cuts have become the order of the day. It is pertinent now to evaluate some alternative investment avenues to suit the current scenario.

Income and Gilt Funds

Income funds invest in corporate bonds, government securities, PSU Bonds and, to some extent, in Commercial papers and Certificate of Deposit.

The maturity period of the underlying assets could vary between 0.6 years and 3/5 years depending on interest rates scenario. Unlike Income funds, Gilt funds invest in government securities. The average maturity period for Gilt funds is around 5.5 years – 16.5 years, depending on whether it is a short/ medium/long-term fund.

Falling interest rates are favourable to income/gilt funds, there exists an inverse relation between interest rates and bond prices. Bond prices go up when interest rates move southwards, this, in turn, reflects in capital appreciation, whereby the returns from income/gilt funds turn out to be attractive.

Here is a simple example to understand the dynamics of bond prices and interest rates. Let us assume that the interest rate was 10 per cent and given a cooling interest rate scenario, the interest rate has fallen to 9 per cent in the market.

The bond with a coupon of 10 per cent on a face value of Rs 100 will continue to earn the same interest even when interest rates in the market fall down.

Thus, the demand for bond paying 10 per cent coupon will go up in the market and the price of the bond will increase such that the new investor gets 9 per cent on market value, on the day the new investor purchases the bond. The reverse situation holds good when the interest rates are peaking and income funds can generate negative returns in such periods. Hence, one could use income funds for a part of one’s overall debt investments.

Outlook: Though returns have been very good in gilt funds, there could be limited upside left from hereon. However, income funds could have some steam left. Corporate spreads are key indicators whilst deciding the entry and exit points of income funds. Corporate spread refers to the difference between yields of corporate bonds and equivalent Government Bonds.

There is speculation that there would be further rate cuts with the impending elections. Due to base effect (sudden spike in interest rates last year), there could be further downside in inflation rates, and this will, in turn, ease the liquidity.

One more round of rate cuts is anticipated, which will help the income funds to perform well. That would make income funds a good investment with a 12-24-month perspective. Income funds also have the flexibility of altering their maturity periods, hence narrowing of corporate spreads could see income funds investing in bonds with higher maturity, thereby locking into higher interest rates.

Gold

With the financial markets remaining chaotic, gold is considered a safe haven. This asset class is likely to provide a balance if your portfolio has a large capital market exposure. Historical evidence shows that bullion moves in negative correlation with equities.

Outlook

While from a demand perspective, one could see lower demand as gold prices skyrocket demand may continue to hold steady for gold as an investment option. One could consider investment in gold in the form of ETFs; one can also consider investment in Gold Mining Funds.

This will give better liquidity, will lower the risk of holding physical gold and reduces transaction costs (transaction charges levied by banks, wastage and making charges, and storage costs). One can allocate about 5-10 per cent of one’s portfolio to Gold. However, considering that gold has run up recently, it maybe a good idea to phase out your investments and not invest a lumpsum at a single time.

While central banks are likely to increasingly use gold for their reserves in the long term due to high volatility in currencies, in the short term, some central banks could sell their gold holdings as a means to fund their debt repayments. Gold is suggested for a time frame of one-three years.

Keep scouting

Consistent scouting for investment avenues is the rule to ensure that you are dwelling with the best in your portfolio. We have outlined just two such options in this article.

There are other avenues, such as fixed deposits including in banks and public sector financial institutions.

The Significant turnaround of markets on time cycle date of March 13th has materialised

The Sensex and Nifty rallied 5% to end the week on a extremely positive note.This is the biggest rise in 3 months.Hopes for a recovery in the battered US banking system boosted investor confidence across the world.All our thursdays counters which had given buy signals like Reliance Industries,ICICI,Tata Motors,Infosys were all up with good volumes.Nifty and Sensex both have given a fresh buy signal.The downtrend which began on Febraury 16th when i got a sell signal has ended.The trend at the moment is up.We had a time cycle date of March 13th which was assumed to be a bottom ,has indeed turned out to be a bottom,the significant turnaround i mentioned in earlier blog has materialised.We are in a new uptrend.Banking Index has also generated a new buy signal,with the leader SBI giving a fresh buy signal.Immidiate target for nifty is 2755 and 2805.Fresh buy signals have been generated in many counters.Email for details.

Real Estate: Ridiculously Overpriced piece of Earth

Let us not forget that Deepak Parekh-the man, synonymous with lending for Real Estate has been the biggest proponent of a fall in prices for the past two years. Now that his belief has come true, the biggest losers would be Real Estate financiers like HDFC, HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis and the motley scores of PSU Banks run by people who would be classified as no more than clueless Babus in the private sector.

My premise is simple, if you finance let us say 70 per cent of a new development and the value of collateral falls by 50 per cent, you suddenly have an asset that no longer covers the Bank's internally mandated margins.

This fall, as so dramatically portrayed by today's Economic Times, will mean call for a marging top-up, a repayment of a loan, foreclosure or even a default. Have all those Banks who funded Real Estate in the past 4 years planned for the possibility that Prime Real Estate could fall 40 to 50 per cent in value? If not, then do they have a Plan B? If not, why do we still continue to hang onto Real Estate stocks, when most of these concerns are likely to go down-under just like the massive and illusory land banks they created.

Some two weeks ago, Mumbai-based stock broker Ashok Samani won an auction to buy eight apartments owned by the late Harshad Mehta in the posh Worli locality. Mr Samani, who put in a winning bid of Rs 32.60 crore, or Rs 26,080 per sq ft, for the apartments in the upmarket housing society, Madhuli, is pleased with the bargain.

“I feel it’s a reasonable price. Compared to prices a year ago, it’s a decent buy,” he says. Apartments in buildings of Madhuli’s class were selling for Rs 38,000-40,000 per sq ft around the same time last year, about a third higher than the rate at which Mr Samani struck his deal.

Mr Samani may be satisfied with his bargain, but a number of other potential buyers don’t seem to think that the time is ripe yet for the best deals. In early 2008, a Rs 18-crore deal was negotiated for a 2,925 sq ft house in Delhi’s upscale Defence Colony area by a builder who planned to demolish the house sitting on the land and develop apartments, hoping for a return of about 30%.

But after the downturn in the real estate market, he is trying hard to wriggle out of the deal, even at the cost of losing the Rs 50 lakh he had paid as ‘token money’ indicating his intention to purchase the property. “A few buyers have approached me with a price of Rs 9-10 crore, but exited mid-way,” said a broker who is negotiating on behalf of the property’s owner.

As in the rest of the world, the real estate market in India is trapped in a vicious cycle of plunging prices. With the bottom nowhere in sight, potential buyers do not want to try and catch a falling knife, says Pranay Vakil, chairman, Knight Frank India, a property consultancy firm. “They are expecting a further cut in prices, while developers themselves have been dropping prices, anticipating an increase in sales volumes.”

Rajneesh Chhabra, a property broker based in south Delhi, says asking rates are down 30% from their peak, but it’s still almost impossible to find a buyer. “Financiers have disappeared from the market and those dependent on bank loans do not buy property in south Delhi,” he says, adding that deal volumes have shrunk by more than 95% from their peaks about a year ago.

With the financial year drawing to a close this month, cash-strapped real estate developers have already cut prices by an average 40% in all their upcoming projects.

“I expect prices will soon come back to the 2003-04 levels, when rates were hovering between Rs 12,000 and Rs 17,000 in upmarket areas like Malabar Hill,” says Mumbai Estate Agents Association president Yashwant Dalal.
In Malabar Hill, the most expensive home address in India, prices have fallen by a fourth to Rs 25,000-45,000 per sq ft, depending on the age of the building and amenities.

Ten months ago, actor Vinod Khanna offered to pay Rs 1.25 lakh per sq ft for a 2,500 sq ft apartment in the ultra-luxury El Plazo housing society in the Hanging Gardens area of Malabar Hill. “Now the rates are in that area (Hanging Gardens) are around Rs 70,000 to Rs 75,000 per sq ft. Similarly, in Pedder Road, rates are around Rs 45,000 per sq ft,” Mr Dalal says.

A London-based Indian national acquired a 3,475 sq ft property at NCPA Apartments in the Nariman Point area at Rs 97,842 per sq ft nearly six months ago, but rates there are almost half that now, says a south Mumbai property dealer.

In central Mumbai’s Worli and Lower Parel areas, rates are down to Rs 12,000-18,000 per sq ft, while in Bandra they have fallen by more than a fifth to Rs 15,000-25,000. Where price drops have been of the order of 50%, buyers appear to be showing interest.

“We are quoting Rs 16,000 per sq ft for our new project in Lower Parel and the initial response has been positive,” says Orbit Corporation finance director Ram Yadav. A year ago, property prices in this area were over Rs 35,000 per sq ft.

Properties in the heart of the national capital on Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road, Amrita Shergill Marg, Jor Bagh and Golf Links, which have seen deals involving industrialists such as LN Mittal, Naveen Jindal and GM Rao as well as film star Shah Rukh Khan, are now struggling to find buyers. A 11,250 sq ft home in Golf Links, which was purchased for Rs 70 crore, is now available for Rs 50 crore, but there are few takers.

“Earlier, financiers used to buy homes. Now, they neither have money nor the hope that they will be able to sell it at a higher rate and so have just withdrawn from the market. End-users are rare and they only negotiate, but don’t buy in the expectation that prices will fall further,” says Neeraj Chopra, a Dwarka-based property broker.

In India’s technology capital Bangalore, prices have fallen by up to 25% in some areas, a recent Morgan Stanley report says. DLF, India’s biggest real estate company, cut rates by about 30% at its upcoming project and the company sees prices falling further. Irshad Ahmed, president of Irshads Property Matters, says that in suburbs such as Whitefield, Outer Ring Road and Sarjapur Road hard bargaining can result in final prices, which are 30% lower than card rates.

Property dealers and builders are also lining up an array of discounts and freebies to try and clinch deals.

The Gateway project by developer Brigade in Malleshwaram, one of the oldest localities in town, is quoting at Rs 5,090 per sq ft against Rs 5,790 per sq ft last year. But there is scope for negotiations, depending on which flat is chosen and the mode of payment, says an official of the marketing team. Second-sale rates at Gateway are Rs 4,700-4,800 per sq ft, according to a property dealer.

In Bangalore’s downtown area, the Mantri group’s upmarket Altius complex, which has only one apartment to a floor with a current market price of around Rs 14 crore, there aren’t many units available for a second sale. A city broker says that since there are no other projects that open up to views of the city’s lung space, Cubbon Park, the price will hold. But the number of people showing interest in buying has dropped, he adds.

However, in the upmarket areas of Chennai there have been no considerable price drops. In Chennai’s Arcot Road, Purasawakkam, Thiruvanmiyur and Valasaravakkam areas, rates still hover between Rs 4,700 and Rs 6,600, about the same a year ago, a dealer says, but prices have fallen by 20-30% in the suburbs.

In Kolkata, prices have fallen from their peaks touched in mid-2008 and hover around levels seen at the beginning of the year. In areas such as Ballygunge Circular Road, Sunny Park and Queens Park rates, which were Rs 8,500-10,000 per sq ft in January 2008 jumped to Rs 13,000-14,000 in June-July before dropping to Rs 9,000-11,000.

“Prices in the city’s posh areas, including Ballygunge Circular Road and Queens Park, had surged because of limited supply, but they have been hit now. Areas like Prince Anwar Shah Road, Behala and Lake Town remain unaffected, as real estate prices in these areas never reached unrealistic levels,” says Jitendra Khaitan, CEO of real estate consultancy Pioneer Property Management.

Sumit Dabriwala, managing director of property developer Hiland Group, says high-end residential properties, which were being sold at Rs 12,000-15,000 per sq ft last year, are averaging Rs 9,000-10,000 per sq ft now. “On an average, properties in upmarket areas have seen a 10-15 % price reduction in the premium category,” he says.

A few banks have cut home loan rates in recent weeks, sparking hope that sales will pick up in the quarter beginning April, rescuing the property market from its downward spiral. This could be a crucial period, as the impact of the ongoing financial crunch is expected to peak by then.

Satyam target reached

On March 6th Satyam was showing bullish signals which was indicated in the blog on that day.The targets given were 44.75,47.85 and 50.90.Today Satyam made a high of 52.90.If it manages to close above 51, it is headed for 60.90.Since the counter was news based it was told to trade with caution.There are rumours that IBM could bag Satyam.Other prominent bidders in the race are L&T and B.K Modi owned Spice Group.

Anil Ambani : Biggest loser on the 2009 Forbes World Billionaire list

Indian businessman Anil Ambani has been revealed as the biggest loser on the 2009 Forbes World Billionaire list, losing $31.9bn over the past 12 months.

Mr Ambani, who runs the telecoms and finance arms of the former Reliance Group, had been 2008's biggest gainer.

India's billionaires saw massive falls, with Mr Ambani's brother Mukesh and steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal both seeing over half their net worth wiped out.

The 793 people listed lost 23% of total wealth on average over the past year.

The impact of the global economic downturn on people's fortunes was apparent, with 332 names from last year's list not making the cut.

Anil Ambani's losses saw him drop to number 34 on the list, from number six last year.

Mukesh Ambani, who heads Reliance Industries, saw his fortune shrink from $43bn last year to $19.5bn.

However, despite slipping two places to number seven on the list, he overtook Lakshmi Mittal, boss of steelmaker Arcelor Mittal, as India's richest man.

Mr Mittal's wealth has plummeted from $45bn to $19.3bn, according to Forbes. He fell from number four to number eight on the list.

Mkts up after we missed the global rally party due to holidays

Markets witnessed buying interest since we had missed on the international market rally due to holidays.All sectoral indexes were in green.There was buying interest in Reliance Inds,ICICI,ITC,Infosys, and HUL.However Bharti,NTPC, and DLF lost ground.Nifty closed at 2602,still in neutral zone.Many counters have given buy signals in todays trade like Reliance Inds,Infosys,Tata Motors and ICICI Bank.If there is follow up buying in the coming days we could witness some more uptrend.Nifty has to close above 2645 for uptrend to sustain.

US markets gain 5.8%,biggest point gain since Nov 2008

Dow Jones Rallied 5.8% on Tuesday to close at 6926 a rise of 379 points.This is the biggest gain since November 2008.Asian markets were also trading higher on the back of US markets with Japans Nikkie up 4.6%.Analysts though were cautious on the durablity of the upmove,the follow up buying if it comes will take away the fears.Dow has given a buy signal in yesterdays close,which has to be further confirmed by giving a close above 6951.Then we could see a relief rally in the coming days,which also coincides with our time cycle date of March 13th on Friday which is assumed to be a bottom.I am expecting one significant turn around, probably up in between the two time cycle dates of March 13th and March 26th.A decisive rise above 7100 in dow would confirm that the down leg started in Jan 2009 has ended and we could see a 15-20% upmove in this rally.

When stock prices drop, where's the money?

Have you ever wondered what happened to your socks when you put them into the dryer and then never saw them again? It's an unexplained mystery that may never have an answer. Many people feel the same way when they suddenly find that their brokerage account balance has taken a nosedive. So, where did that money go? Fortunately, money that is gained or lost on a stock doesn't just disappear. Read to find out what happens to it and what causes it.

Disappearing money
Before we get to how money disappears, it is important to understand that regardless of whether the market is in bull (appreciating) or bear (depreciating) mode, supply and demand drive the price of stocks, and fluctuations in stock prices determine whether you make money or lose it.

So, if you purchase a stock for $10 and then sell it for only $5, you will (obviously) lose $5. It may feel like that money must go to someone else, but that isn't exactly true. It doesn't go to the person who buys the stock from you. The company that issued the stock doesn't get it either. The brokerage is also left empty-handed, as you only paid it to make the transaction on your behalf. So the question remains: where did the money go?

Implicit and explicit value
The most straightforward answer to this question is that it actually disappeared into thin air, along with the decrease in demand for the stock, or, more specifically, the decrease in investors' favorable perception of it.

But this capacity of money to dissolve into the unknown demonstrates the complex and somewhat contradictory nature of money. Yes, money is a teaser - at once intangible, flirting with our dreams and fantasies, and concrete, the thing with which we obtain our daily bread. More precisely, this duplicity of money represents the two parts that make up a stock's market value: the implicit and explicit value.

On the one hand, money can be created or dissolved with the change in a stock's implicit value, which is determined by the personal perceptions and research of investors and analysts. For example, a pharmaceutical company with the rights to the patent for the cure for cancer may have a much higher implicit value than that of a corner store.

Depending on investors' perceptions and expectations for the stock, implicit value is based on revenues and earnings forecasts. If the implicit value undergoes a change - which, really, is generated by abstract things like faith and emotion - the stock price follows.

A decrease in implicit value, for instance, leaves the owners of the stock with a loss because their asset is now worth less than its original price. Again, no one else necessarily received the money; it has been lost to investors' perceptions.

Now that we've covered the somewhat "unreal" characteristic of money, we cannot ignore how money also represents explicit value, which is the concrete worth of a company. Referred to as the accounting value (or sometimes book value), the explicit value is calculated by adding up all assets and subtracting liabilities. So, this represents the amount of money that would be left over if a company were to sell all of its assets at fair market value and then pay off all of liabilities.

But you see, without explicit value, implicit value would not exist: investors' interpretation of how well a company will make use of its explicit value is the force behind implicit value.

Disappearing trick revealed
For instance, in February 2009, Cisco Systems Inc had 5.81 billion shares outstanding, which means that if the value of the shares dropped by $1, it would be the equivalent to losing more than $5.81 billion in (implicit) value. Because CSCO has many billions of dollars in concrete assets, we know that the change occurs not in explicit value, so the idea of money disappearing into thin air ironically becomes much more tangible.

In essence, what's happening is that investors, analysts and market professionals are declaring that their projections for the company have narrowed. Investors are therefore not willing to pay as much for the stock as they were before.

So, faith and expectations can translate into cold hard cash, but only because of something very real: the capacity of a company to create something, whether it is a product people can use or a service people need. The better a company is at creating something, the higher the company's earnings will be and the more faith investors will have in the company.

In a bull market, there is an overall positive perception of the market's ability to keep producing and creating. Because this perception would not exist were it not for some evidence that something is being or will be created, everyone in a bull market can be making money. Of course, the exact opposite can happen in a bear market.

To sum it all up, you can think of the stock market as a huge vehicle for wealth creation and destruction.

Disappearing socks
No one really knows why socks go into the dryer and never come out, but next time you're wondering where that stock price came from or went to, at least you can chalk it up to market perception.

Buffett sticks to his view that shares are best long-term investment

Warren Buffet ,the US investor dubbed the Sage of Omaha, continues to be a cheerleader for equities despite recent spectacular misjudgments on the timing of his buy and hold philosophy.

In a wide ranging interview with the CNBC television todayhe insisted that over 10 years, "you will do considerably better owning a group of equities" than US treasury bonds. This echoed his comments to the New York Times in Oct­ober that he was buying US equities. Since then the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen by over 26% and more than 2,300 points as it tests lows which have not been seen for 12 years.

Yesterday Buffett defended his October assessment of the market. "I stand by the article," he said. "I just wish I had written it a few months later." He claimed he was not calling the bottom of the market in October and yesterday again refused to be drawn on the short term outlook for financial markets.

"I would never have a feeling that the Dow is going to go to 2,000 or 12,000 or 4,300 or 20,200. I don't – I know over time it will go higher," Buffett said. "But if you buy a cross section of good equities, generally well capitalised companies, you'll make money over 10 or 20 years. I haven't the faintest idea where you'll be in 10 months, but it really doesn't make any difference."

His comments come just over a week after Buffett had to tell investors in his Berkshire Hathaway investment group that 2008 had been the worst year since he took the helm 44 years ago. He reported then that the group's annual income had fallen by 59% and that $11.5bn (£8bn) had been wiped off its net worth.

In that annual letter to shareholders, he predicted that the economy would be a shambles throughout 2009 and yesterday he said: " It's fallen off a cliff, and not only has the economy slowed down a lot, people have really changed their behaviour like nothing I've ever seen."

He described the current crisis as "an economic Pearl Harbor", performing close to his worst case scenario, and he believed that in September last year the financial system came perilously close to a complete breakdown.

Although Buffett anticipates further economic pain, with unemployment rising and inflation returning, he is confident that the US economy will recover.

" Everything will be all right. We do have the greatest economic machine that man has ever created, I believe," Buffett said. "This machine is gummed up right now and it's gummed up by a lack of confidence, and that makes people scared and, I mean, it feeds back and forth and it's a vicious cycle."

Buffett urged American political leaders to act to counter that fear.

"I've never seen the consumer or the Americans just generally more fearful than this. And they're also confused. And you can get fearful very quickly, but you don't get confident, you know, in five minutes. You can get fearful in five minutes, but you won't get confident for some time.

"And government is going to play an enormous factor in how fast it comes back. And if you're confused and fearful, you don't get over being fearful till you aren't confused. I mean, the message has to be very, very clear as to what government will be doing.

"And I think we've had – and it's the nature of the political process, somewhat, but we've had muddled messages, and the American public does not know … they feel that they don't know what's going on and their reaction, then, is to absolutely pull back."

MARKETS CLOSE LOWER

Markets opened with a downward gap on Monday 9th March.Weak global cues continue to haunt us.The relief rally of friday was shortlived.Relentless FII selling brought down the bankex by 24% in last 15 days.There was selling pressure through out the day,nifty opened at 2600 ,20 points lower and then went down below 2560 levels to close at 2573.We have two holidays on Tuesday and wednesday when international markets are open.So Thursdays opening will depend on how international markets react in these two days.A close below 2564 will make markets even weak.The bullish levels are bit far off so trend continues to be down to neutral.We have 2 time cycle dates this month, one is on March 13th and another March 26th.This also happens to be a fibonacci window where major market turn arounds can happen.Looking at the present market dynamics i would assume that we would bottom somewhere around these dates.From where markets could see a good bounce.As of now there no signals of bottom yet.

LIC hikes stakes in many companies

As indices have been falling recently, slowly LIC has bought some stocks; mainly they are banks which have faced most of the selling pressure.

Companies where LIC has raised stakes recently (Source: Various news reports)

Stock	Stake hiked to (%)
ICICI Bank	9.38
GAIL	9.98
IOB	7.09
HDFC Bank	7.105
PNB	10

As an investor, you should not get tired of buying. Peter Lynch once said, "When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure, they can go lower. I've bought stocks at $12 that went to $2, but then they later went to $30. You just don't know when you can find the bottom."

Bear market is the best time to build a portfolio. Those who miss out on such opportunities, have to beg for corrections so that they can get a chance to buy, but they hardly get any offerings. The time is not too far for the rally. Better to be a beneficiary of a bull-run than a beggar of a bull-run.

Crude Oil may touch $75 as China hedges US Treasury risk

After falling from $147 to $35 per barrel towards the end of last year, crude oil has once again gained and touched $45 per barrel on increased speculation that China’s stimulus plan may spur demand for the commodity near term. However, some experts are of the view that this is not just speculation but real purchases driving the prices up.

China is said to be considering buying crude oil as part of its strategy to diversify holdings from US Treasuries. This is to hedge against the risk of US Treasury prices dropping and dollar depreciation in the long run, with the Obama government issuing government bonds worth dollar trillions to finance economic stimulus measures.

The Asian giant, which has been building a national oil stockpile since 2004, is planning to stock 100 million barrels by next year, Japanese business daily Nikkei reported last week.

China has about $2 trillion in foreign reserves, the largest in the world. It put Japan behind as the No 1 holder of US Treasuries last September. Two-thirds of China's foreign reserve assets are said to be dollar denominated, according to the business daily.

Suresh Chandra, analyst at Horizon Capital Management, says, “the next bubble to burst will be the US treasuries. Over the past 15 months, the Arab oil countries have been the biggest buyers of US treasury bills worth $245 billion. The next biggest buyer is China at $233 billion.”

“However, the current economic situation has changed the game of the business. With the slump in the global economy and US running huge fiscal deficit, the dollar is expected to depreciate heavily in the mid- to long-term. And hence, a country like China, which has huge foreign reserves in dollars and US treasuries, is trying to hedge against their dollar denominated holdings,” he added.

Although the scale of the potential oil purchases by China is unknown, buying 100 million barrels would amount to $4 billion at current market prices--representing only 0.2% of China's foreign reserves.

Jonathan Paul, principle economist at Krug and Bordman Commodity Advisory, said, “Crude oil should rise to at least $75 per barrel in 2009. One way is OPEC may raise prices and other one is a huge demand on cards from developing and other countries-- those wanting to shy away from the dollar denominated assets.”

“The major difference between gold and oil as a hedge against dollar, is that one can consume oil in various development activities but it is not the case with gold. Hence, I expect crude oil price to rise in mid-to-long term and it may be in the $65-75 range in near term,” Paul added.

SENSEX YEAR ON YEAR RETURNS

Sensex Year on Year
YEAR	First Traded Day of January	Last Traded Day of December	% Chg
1991	999.26	1908.85	91.03
1992	1957.33	2615.37	33.62
1993	2539.67	3346.06	31.75
1994	3465.86	3926.90	13.30
1995	3932.09	3110.49	-20.89
1996	3127.94	3085.20	-1.37
1997	3260.56	3658.98	12.22
1998	3694.62	3055.41	-17.30
1999	3060.34	5005.82	63.57
2000	5375.11	3972.12	-26.10
2001	3955.08	3262.33	-17.52
2002	3246.15	3377.28	4.04
2003	3390.12	5838.96	72.23
2004	5915.47	6602.69	11.62
2005	6679.20	9397.93	40.70
2006	9390.14	13708.34	45.99
2007	13942.24	20286.99	45.51
2008	20300.71	9647.31	-52.48

At last a relief rally to end the week

Nifty opened with a gap down as expected.After the first hour of trade there was some upward momentum.We had a buy signal in nifty at 2565 levels at about 11 am which was for intra day traders.which was confirmed again at 2pm when nifty started trading above 2590.Later nifty went on to close at 2620.Which is above our bearish level of 2611.So now nifty trend has changed from bearish to neutral.For it to get bullish nifty has to close above 2660.Overnight US markets had a flat to positive close.

5 investment secrets of a self-made millionaire

I had been investing for a number of years before I learnt how to deal with risk. By solidly identifying some market opportunities I had achieved good results, but I treated finance as a game of chess, an exact discipline, where I expected to benefit from good decisions and suffer from poor ones.

1. How to deal with risk

This over-ambitious approach occasionally caused some bad habits. For instance, when I was not performing well, I made three basic mistakes:

• I let losing positions drag on for longer than I should, as I hoped that eventually, I would be proved right.
• I was a bit harsh on myself, and I assumed that to make a loss, must have missed something obvious.
• I let it depress me that many hours of work on research and analysis could actually lead to failure.

Equally, when I made profits, I was over-ambitious and assumed that my reasoning had been right. I thought I was a hero!

Backgammon rather than chess

Fortunately, it didn't take long before I evolved a different way of thinking. I realised that luck plays a role in the investment world. Profits can be simply due to good luck, and losses simply due to bad luck. Financial markets are more like a game of backgammon than a game of chess, because unpredictable events in the markets simulate the involvement of the dice.

With this discovery I started treating markets as partly random and accepted that there was always going to be risk. There is no perfect investment or trade. This approach helped my trading enormously.

• I stopped blocking the possibility of losses out of my mind like some dark fear, and I began to consciously anticipate them.
• I accepted that it would not always be possible to find a reason for a trade going wrong, apart from just chance. So I gave up over-analysing losses with endless post-mortems looking for my mistakes.
• I learnt to assess risks and look at factors like correlation and liquidity.
• Having consciously recognised risk, I reasoned that it was not always a good idea to try and minimise it. I knew that having identified some comparative advantages, I had to trust them to work over time.
• I accepted that even good ideas can lose money. That helped me to get better at cutting losing positions. Being wrong did not mean that I was a lousy trader. Even a trader with a comparative advantage will often make what is later found to be the wrong decision.

This attitude to risk is worth adopting. Accept that trading is unique�-- a doctor or a lawyer would quickly be out of business with the number of failures that are part of a trader's life.

2. Good ideas can lose money

In 1999 and early 2000, Warren Buffett was very sceptical about the rising valuations in the stock market, particularly those in the tech sector. Consequently, he didn't invest as aggressively as many other fund managers. Then, of course, in mid-2000 the share prices of many tech stocks collapsed to a fraction of their boom value.

It was a massive market crash, and the so-called 'Sage of Omaha' was proved right (yet again!). I'm sure, however, that even he must have felt some pressure when prices were relentlessly rising and his funds were under-performing. With his reputation though, his investors stuck with him through this difficult period, and he held firm. They believed that he had the right approach, even though he was not getting immediate results.

Analysis after a loss

If you've lost money on an investment, ask yourself questions such as:

• Were you pursuing a genuine opportunity?
• Did you understand how the market usually works?
• Did you back a big idea or market anomaly that you had identified?
• Was the potential reward worth the risk?

If you have let yourself down, learn from the experience and try not to do it again. But if the investment looks like it made sense, then try not to be put off. Accept that you cannot judge the quality of a single trade or investment by whether you made a profit or loss.

This approach is very disciplined. You do not want to change your investment style on the back of just a few disappointments.

The outcome of an investment or trade is not necessarily a true reflection of the merits of the original idea. Good ideas can lose money.

3. Wild swings and losses are uncomfortable, but they may offer the best rewards

While the markets have evolved and become increasingly sophisticated, there has been enormous scrutiny of just about every possible opportunity. Any obvious and reliable way to make money has now probably disappeared.

This means that there are fewer opportunities which offer smooth above-average returns. In fact, the opportunities likely to last longest are those which are the most uncomfortable. Would you be prepared to back an idea that would probably lose money eleven months out of twelve, even if it would probably pay off in the other month?

A lot of traders don't want that life. A lot of funds would be hammered with capital withdrawals by their investors. We live in a quarterly or annual reporting world. People evaluate performance over a given period and take action if results are not up to scratch.

By careful management of risk, however, you may be able to take on these uncomfortable types of investments. In the mid 1990s, I had "retired" and I only wanted to invest my own money. I continued to trade currencies and futures on my own account, and I also decided to start investing in early stage companies.

Early stage companies are often private companies which are not listed on any share market, although that is normally their aspiration. There are many of these little unlisted companies searching for financial backers, and they usually find it very difficult, since few investors are interested in them.

4. Opportunities may be found in areas that others find uncomfortable

One of my reasons for moving into this high risk sector, was that many people find the risk profile too uncomfortable. The majority of the companies fail, and the investor needs to select his investments extremely carefully, and trust that the winners will more than compensate for the losers.

Investors also have very little liquidity, and they may have to wait years for a chance to get some money back when the company floats on the share market or is acquired by another company.

This is why I came to the conclusion that good, small companies can be underpriced. This can be an advantage for anyone investing in start-ups if they are able to sort through the many companies looking for money and to choose the good over the bad. I have found the process is not that different to looking at the fundamentals driving currencies, interest rates or other markets, and over a ten year period, I have managed to achieve well over a 20 per cent�annual return despite the market collapse in 2000.

Not everyone though, can invest in unlisted companies. The minimum investment needed is at least 50 grand, and you probably need a network to make the introduction. However, I have also been able to apply the experience I have gained from dealing with unlisted companies to help me evaluate small companies which are already listed on the share market.

These are accessible to all investors. In a later chapter I will explore the fundamentals of small companies which I think are important for investors to assess. The small listed companies are also generally riskier than the big solid blue chip stocks, but by making an effort to investigate these opportunities and by managing your risk, you may find that these more uncomfortable investments offer a better price.

In general, keep a lookout for investments and trading styles that others don't like. It is logical that it may be here that you find the winners.

5. Diversify

The benefits of diversification are very well-known. There is a famous expression saying that diversification is the one "free lunch" for the investor. No collection of strategies would be complete without a mention of this easy meal. The world is risk averse. People want to avoid nasty surprises. Investors would prefer to have steady reliable returns, rather than potential wild swings of wins and losses.

Diversification can allow investors to reduce their risk without reducing their overall return. The idea of diversification is that it smoothes out the flow of wins and losses. It is unlikely that a variety of separate trading ideas will all win or lose at the same time. So even if we are placing riskier trades, it may not result in a riskier total portfolio.

I have discussed how I believe that uncomfortable trades with the big swings in wins and losses may offer the best rewards. So diversification is especially useful, because it may be possible to have a more comfortable existence, and still pocket the high return.

There are a few points to note about diversification:

• You can diversify within an asset class. For example, a stock portfolio can have a mix of some blue chips with some small stocks.
• Diversification across all asset classes (stocks, bonds, cash, gold, property, etc.) is more effective though, since the positions are less correlated.
• You shouldn't keep a losing position simply because another one is doing well. I was once very sloppy with a losing currency position, because I had a bond position that was profitable, and in aggregate I wasn't losing money. I realised later, that had I used my usual discipline I would have cut the losing position and been much better off.
• Every position in the portfolio should be based on its own merits.
• Remember that you can keep cash as one component in a diversified portfolio.
• Diversification is not an exact science. Since it is difficult to accurately measure risk, so for diversification a rough mix, based on instincts, is probably adequate.

(Excerpt from Taming the Lion: 100 Secret Strategies for Investing by Richard Farleigh, who made millions before he was 35 through shrewd investing.

Satyam Computers Hits 20% upper circuit !!!

Satyam Computers hit the 20% upper circuit at 42.15.Technically it looks poised for a rally.First target is 44.75,second target 47.85,third target 50.90.Keep a trailing stop loss as the prices keep moving up,since the stock is moving on news.

Stock Watch : Satyam Computers

Satyam Computer Services has finally got the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (SEBI) approval for a global competitive bidding process.

Satyam said that the SEBI approval will enable the investor to acquire a total 51% stake in the company. The management added that Satyam will issue fresh equity of 31% to the investor.

Satyam further said that the investor will make an open offer for 20% on closure of the subscription. The investor will be issued additional equity if it fails to get 51% post the open offer, the management said.

The management also stated that no second offer would be required if additional shares are issued second time. Qualified investor, Satyam said, must have net assets of over USD 150 million.

Satyam also stated that the selected investor will have a lock-in period of three years.

Technicals : The stock is trading at 40.90 up 16%.It is showing bullish signs.If today it closes above 40 then it can move upto 51 and 59 bieng the next resistence Since the scrip is news based it would be a high risk gamble.Any negative news could bring the stock price down.Have a strict stop loss of 35 for any buy positions.

Why There is No Bottom: Economic Forecasts

Jeffrey A. Miller, Ph.D.

Since the stock market seems to have no bottom, investors want to know why.

What People Read

We know that individual investors are frightened, a perception fueled by stock market results. For most, the stock market is the barometer for economic forecasting.

Fueling this is the popular perception of the economic prospects. The New York Times pulled together a number of op-ed pieces, asking When Will the Recession be Over?

This is powerful material, drawing together the opinions of many experts. Readers should review all of the pieces. We know from reader feedback, emails, and calls that it was an important article.

Jim Grant, erudite, polished, and persuasive, tells us, "don't ask when."

Stephen Roach, of Morgan Stanley, predicts late 2010 or 2011.

A. Michael Spence, the Nobel-Prize winning management Prof from Stanford says "unusually long and deep global recession through 2010." That is if governments get their acts together.

William Poole of the Cato Institute rails against unwise government bailouts, which he believes are making things worse.

Eric Schmidt, Chairman and CEO of Google, expects signs of life later this year, and a resumption of normal lending in 2010, with the Internet playing a key role.

Financial writer George Cooper sees a financial drag extending into the next decade.

Harvard historian Niall Ferguson sees two years of contraction and two lean years after that.

Princeton Econ Prof and former Fed Governor Alan Blinder sees growth resuming in the fourth quarter of 2009, but with many caveats.

University of California-Riverside economists Marcelle Chauvet and Kevin A. Hassett take a probabilistic approach based upon past recessions, and see the probability of the current downturn lasting through 2009 at 50-50.

University of Maryland economist Carmen Reinhart focuses on a return to normal growth, setting out four years or more as the time frame.

NYU Econ Prof Nouriel Roubini sees a three-year recession, with chances for much worse.

A Different Approach

A different approach to the problem is to use a continuing panel, not selected for star quality. The Wall Street Journal forecasting survey provides such a comparison.

The Journal article on the latest survey carries a gloomy headline, Economists' U.S. Outlook Dims. The Journal surveys 52 economists, and reports on 2009 as follows:

The average forecast now sees growth in the third quarter at 0.7%, less than half the rate expected last fall. The fourth-quarter picture has also darkened, but just slightly, to growth of 1.9% from the 2.1% seen in November. Five economists see growth declining through the fourth quarter of 2009; they say the current consensus outlook, which says the recession will end in August as GDP growth returns positive, is far too optimistic.

Briefly put, the economic panel has reduced estimates for growth, but is dramatically more positive (less negative?) than the New York Times group. They see the monthly job loss for the year as 183,000 per month, much better than current rates, and unemployment peaking at 8.8%

A key difference is attention to the stimulus package, which they see as saving about 90K jobs/month. Interestingly some say it was too large, and others, too small!

Our Take

The entire media approach is very negative. The New York Times has an all-star cast of experts, but it leaves us wondering a bit. When an article like this appears it creates an illusion of scientific sampling. We are also bothered by the lack of attention to the dramatic government intervention begun many months ago, policies with known lags. The peak of the crisis came right after the Lehman fall and credit freeze.

None of the economic models have any experience with the myriad of Fed programs, not to mention the stimulus package.

Models can be quantitative or qualitative, but are always based upon experience. None of us have the relevant experience for this particular crisis, so our models are suspect. It is also natural to highlight experts who have been right -- those who "got it" in the popular Street parlance. The question is whether the skills involved in predicting the problem are also the right skills for identifying the possible solutions.

We find the WSJ panel to be an interesting counterpoint. The investment prize will go to those who can identify economic indicators showing any bottoming signs. With equity prices at depression levels, even a moderation in the depth of the recession could be good news.

Meanwhile, most investors are focused on the headlines.

Dow crashes badly,Nifty expected to open with a down gap

US markets crashed badly overnight with Dow falling by 280 points to close at 6594.Nasdaq and S&P also had a bad closing.Asian markets are also down with Japan's Nikkei down 2.5% so far.SGX Nifty is down 36 points at 2520,thats where we might open today.The level of 2500 is crucial which we might test today.If we hold that level we might see a technical bounce.Nifty is bullish only above a close of 2690.Till we close below 2611 we continue to be in downtrend.

Banks and Heavy Wieghts Drag the markets down

Nifty opened flat to mild positive.Even after the postive news from RBI and overseas markets it was not in a position to open with a upward gap which most market participants expected.In no time nifty started to get weak.Then there was continous fall all through out the day with heavy wieghts like HUL,Ranbaxy,ICICI falling badly.Banks bore the brunt of the fall with bank index falling sharply.Nifty was down 68.5 points at 2576.The 2500 level is a strong support which should hold for things not to get worse.We are approaching the next time cycle date of March 13th which should be a bottom from where we could see a bounce.Till then we continue to remain in downtrend.

Banks Will Lose Half Their Mkt Cap By Dec09

Inflation is being used as a ruse to cut interest rates by the joker at RBI. Common sense tells that low commodity prices which underline a recession are responsible for a lower inflation and not a supply side response. The very factors that built up a strong case for banks a mere six months ago could as easily reverse if the Global Economies begin growing. However, 30 years of zero interest rates have achieved nothing for Japan, and so far similar efforts in the US and Europe have failed.

"Money has a cost" is the idiom the guy at RBI needs to understand, throwing money at dead businesses will mean sizeable business losses in six months from now. It is already an open secret that all Bank NPA figures are fudged in India, but with sub 10 per cent PLRs this will become difficult to hide. Starting from SBI, PNB, BOB, BOI, HDFC, HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank could halve even from here. This is going to become the last sector to be crushed in the fall of CY2009.

TOP 25 businesses to pursue in Recession

If you want to recession-proof your career, the key is to focus on work that continues even when most people don't have disposable income to spend. So while consumers may not hit the mall as often, you can guarantee that people will continue to get sick, pay taxes and use energy. These are just a few of the careers and industries that can be expected to thrive in a down economy.

1. Health Care: People will always get sick — sometimes even more so when they don't have the insurance or money to take preventative measures or eat healthy food.
   
2. Energy: Although consumers are likely to cut back, they're not going to stop using energy. In fact, this industry may grow, as companies look for more efficient ways to deliver using less energy.
   
3. Education: No matter how dire the economy is, there are always jobs for teachers. Kids will still go to school, and many out-of-work adults may decide to continue their education.
   
4. Utilities: Just like the energy sector, it's safe to assume that people are not going to stop lighting their homes. So utility administration, maintenance and other related jobs should remain intact.
   
5. International Business: Even when the economy is doing poorly in the U.S., other countries may be doing well. So if you are involved in international business, you can expect your career to stay safe.
   
6. Public Safety: Police layoffs are very rare, especially at a time where public safety is threatened by desperate criminals. A career in public safety is almost guaranteed to be secure.
   
7. Funerals: Just like people won't stop getting sick, they'll continue to die as well, so as morbid as it is, morticians will always have customers.
   
8. Accounting: Death and taxes are a sure thing. In a recession, people and companies are likely to get desperate for more deductions and a hard look at their books.
   
9. Federal Government: Most federal-government jobs end only when workers retire. Additionally, government services tend to step up in times of recession, so your chances of getting and keeping a government job are good.
   
10. Pharmaceuticals: As long as doctors prescribe them, people are still going to take drugs. So whether you're behind the pharmacy counter or in the lab, you can rest easy.
    
11. Sales: As a general rule, anyone who is a source of income for a company will be safe, so salespeople — especially in recession-proof industries — have little to worry about.
    
12. Military: The military is always hiring, especially during wartime. Also, consider that most of your living expenses are covered, so cost-of-living expenses are not really a concern.
    
13. Gambling: When times get tough, people seek an outlet. One of those outlets is gambling, especially because it offers a chance to turn financial troubles around.
    
14. Alcohol: Alcohol is another outlet for troubled times, so distributors and manufacturers in this industry will continue to thrive.
    
15. Politics: Even in a recession, public officials are still around earning tidy sums, which are often tied to the cost of living.
    
16. Skilled Services: Hair will always grow, and drains will always clog, so you can expect steady work in skilled services like plumbing and hairstyling.
    
17. Debt Management: Recessions mean crunch time for debtors, and they're sure to need some guidance.
    
18. Consulting: Recessions are crunch times for companies as well, and they're likely to bring in consultants for advice on efficiency and squeezing the most out of their resources.
    
19. Bankruptcy Law: It's sad, but true: As companies and individuals go bankrupt, they'll need a lawyer to help them work through it all.
    
20. Government Contracting: Despite money troubles, roads must be maintained and schools must be built. Contract your work out for government functions for job security.
    
21. Food: People need food to survive, and it's not likely that anyone is going to just stop eating — no matter how bad the economy gets.
22. Beauty, Health and Erotic Services: Regardless of a recession, people who enjoy being pampered will seldom give up the simple pleasures in life.
23. Debt Collection: As budgets get squeezed, people will fall behind on payments, and companies will look to debt collectors to recoup their costs.
    
24. Ultraluxury Items: If you're in a business that caters to the ultrarich, you can expect to be safe, as this type of consumer is likely to have measures in place to weather the recession.
    
25. Multifaceted Careers: If you don't put all of your eggs in one basket, you should be able to ride out a recession by relying on secondary income. So if you juggle a career that involves a regular job, plus other sources like online income, freelancing and investing, numerous failures have to happen before you're really in trouble.
    

Although today's job market may be bleak, there are some bright spots if you know where to look. While recessions hit some sectors hard, others go on like clockwork — or even experience growth. So whether you're hunting for a job or still feeling ostensibly secure, now is a good time to evaluate your options and consider one of the aforementioned recession-proof careers